Although the principle of neutrality has been one of the Gulf states’ approaches to handling the regional security crises witnessed over the past decades, the Gulf states may find themselves involved in these crises for several reasons. Among these reasons is their strategic location, which has made them key points in managing these crises, in addition to being neighbors to regional powers involved in conflicts, especially Iran and Iraq.

During the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988, which aimed to shift the balance of power in favor of one side, the Gulf states maintained a position of non-alignment. However, this neutrality did not last due to the war’s developments, and the Gulf states became part of the conflict as oil tankers entering and exiting Gulf ports were targeted. Kuwait was forced to raise American flags on its ships to seek protection from these attacks. It is estimated that between 1984 and 1987, there were 309 attacks on ships, with 187 by Iraq and 122 by Iran. This created enormous challenges for the Gulf states, not least the environmental pollution, with estimates suggesting about 20 million barrels of oil leaked into Gulf waters, creating a pollution slick the size of Belgium, in addition to threatening the region’s oil exports to global markets.

In 2019 and 2021, during the renewed targeting of oil tankers in the Gulf, reminiscent of the tanker war in the 1980s, the Gulf states sought to prevent escalation and avoid confrontations, but faced major challenges from these threats, especially in the absence of a decisive international response.

During the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Gulf states tried to shield the region from the consequences of another war, but the developments followed the path of invasion, leading to regional power imbalances that remain a source of challenges today.

Following the outbreak of the Gaza events on October 7, 2023, although the Gulf states were not directly involved, they played a significant role through mediation and the outcomes of the 34th Arab Summit held in Bahrain in May 2024, which emphasized the necessity of establishing a Palestinian state.

In my opinion, the Gulf states will continue on the same path. Currently, there is much discussion about the Gulf states’ stance on the rapid developments, particularly the escalating confrontations and reciprocal attacks between Iran and Israel, which worry all the countries in the region. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited some Gulf states. Although the Gulf states have repeatedly affirmed their neutrality in these confrontations, as history has shown, neutrality is only sustainable if the warring parties choose to respect it. However, the strategic location of the Gulf states, coupled with their strategic partnerships with major Western powers, reflected in security agreements and joint military cooperation, positions them at the center of these interactions.

In other words, the Gulf states must be prepared to manage regional security developments. No one desires war or confrontations, and the Gulf states are not directly involved in these clashes, but the issue is not merely about a war between two parties; it concerns the broader consequences for the region. From a strategic perspective, further regional collapses would have serious implications for Gulf security, as the current challenges in the Gulf are a direct result of the regional power imbalance caused by the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, which led to the rise of non-state actors, especially in Iraq, and their growing influence, posing a significant challenge to both national sovereignty in neighboring countries and the entire regional security framework.

In my view, the Gulf states must adopt parallel approaches to address these developments. Firstly, they must repeatedly assert that they are not parties to any regional conflicts. Secondly, they should continue their mediation efforts to defuse major military confrontations, as their historical experience shows their capacity to play this role, such as the U.N. Security Council resolution in the 1980s calling for the protection of freedom of navigation in the Gulf. The Gulf states have maintained contacts with all parties. Thirdly, they must strengthen Gulf coordination through the Gulf Cooperation Council to be ready to address any emergencies requiring a collective Gulf response. Fourthly, they need to enhance the protection of vital installations amidst the current regional instability. While conventional military attacks are unlikely, the growing use of technology in warfare presents significant challenges, including the continued threat posed by the Houthis to maritime navigation in the Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea. Fifthly, they must invest in their relations with global powers to ensure that they remain engaged with Gulf security. Their strategic partnerships with Western nations, particularly the United States and European countries, have been critical in providing security assurances and military protection. However, with the shifting global order and the rise of new powers like China and Russia, the Gulf states should diversify their alliances to ensure comprehensive security.

Sixthly, the Gulf states must focus on enhancing their domestic resilience. This includes investing in cybersecurity, protecting critical infrastructure, and improving their capabilities to respond to both conventional and non-conventional threats, such as cyber-attacks or drone warfare, which have increasingly been used in the region’s conflicts.

Finally, fostering regional dialogue and cooperation remains essential. The Gulf states could take a leading role in initiating regional dialogues that include all relevant players, including Iran, Iraq, and other neighboring states, to address the root causes of insecurity. By promoting dialogue and diplomacy, the Gulf states can potentially prevent conflicts from escalating into broader regional crises.

In conclusion, the Gulf states are situated in a highly strategic but volatile region, where security challenges are complex and multifaceted. Their approach to managing regional security crises must be multi-dimensional, combining neutrality, diplomacy, strategic alliances, and domestic preparedness to ensure their continued stability and prosperity. While neutrality has been their traditional stance, the reality of their geopolitical position requires proactive engagement to prevent being drawn into conflicts that could have devastating consequences for the entire region.

Note: This article has been automatically translated.

Source: Akhbar Al Khaleej